Zero-Emission Truck Policy Group at 2023 Climate Week NYC: Roundtable on Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure and the Grid

There are ~13 million medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) in the United States across a large variety of vehicle types ranging from heavy-duty pickup trucks and box trucks to full-size buses and Class 8 tractor semi-trailers. Despite representing only 5% of vehicles on the road, MHDVs emit almost 25% of total U.S. transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and are a major source of air pollution, which poses substantial health burdens and disproportionally affects disadvantaged communities. It is thus critical to transition to zero-emissions solutions: battery electric vehicles (EVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) can be viable solutions for multiple market segments. EVs are coming fast. NREL estimates that with continued improvements in vehicle and fuel technologies, zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) can reach total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional diesel vehicles for all MHDV classes (without incentives) by 2035. ZEV sales could reach more than 40% of all trucks by 2030, reflecting lower vehicle purchase and operating costs. Electrification will have far-reaching impacts for energy systems and the grid. EVs are expected to be the largest source of electricity load growth over the next decade and can provide much needed demand-side flexibility.